Distance-based Analysis of Machine Learning Prediction Reliability for Datasets in Materials Science and Other Fields

Despite successful use in a wide variety of disciplines for data analysis and prediction, machine learning (ML) methods suffer from a lack of understanding of the reliability of predictions due to the lack of transparency and black-box nature of ML models. In materials science and other fields, typical ML model results include a significant number of low-quality predictions. This problem is known to be particularly acute for target systems which differ significantly from the data used for ML model training. However, to date, a general method for characterization of the difference between the predicted and training system has not been available. Here, we show that a simple metric based on Euclidean feature space distance and sampling density allows effective separation of the accurately predicted data points from data points with poor prediction accuracy. We show that the metric effectiveness is enhanced by the decorrelation of the features using Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization. To demonstrate the generality of the method, we apply it to support vector regression models for various small data sets in materials science and other fields. Our method is computationally simple, can be used with any ML learning method and enables analysis of the sources of the ML prediction errors. Therefore, it is suitable for use as a standard technique for the estimation of ML prediction reliability for small data sets and as a tool for data set design

Identification of high-reliability regions of machine learning predictions in materials science using transparent conducting oxides and perovskites as examples

Progress in the application of machine learning (ML) methods to materials design is hindered by the lack of understanding of the reliability of ML predictions, in particular for the application of ML to small data sets often found in materials science. Using ML prediction for transparent conductor oxide formation energy and band gap, dilute solute diffusion, and perovskite formation energy, band gap and lattice parameter as examples, we demonstrate that 1) analysis of ML results by construction of a convex hull in feature space that encloses accurately predicted systems can be used to identify regions in feature space for which ML predictions are highly reliable 2) analysis of the systems enclosed by the convex hull can be used to extract physical understanding and 3) materials that satisfy all well-known chemical and physical principles that make a material physically reasonable are likely to be similar and show strong relationships between the properties of interest and the standard features used in ML. We also show that similar to the composition-structure-property relationships, inclusion in the ML training data set of materials from classes with different chemical properties will not be beneficial and will slightly decrease the accuracy of ML prediction and that reliable results likely will be obtained by ML model for narrow classes of similar materials even in the case where the ML model will show large errors on the dataset consisting of several classes of materials. Our work suggests that analysis of the error distributions of ML predictions will be beneficial for the further development of the application of ML methods in material science

Self-Organizing Maps Algorithm for Parton Distribution Functions Extraction

We describe a new method to extract parton distribution functions from hard scattering processes based on Self-Organizing Maps. The extension to a larger, and more complex class of soft matrix elements, including generalized parton distributions is also discussed.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, to be published in the proceedings of ACAT 2011, 14th International Workshop on Advanced Computing and Analysis Techniques in Physics Researc